Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Bottoms Take Time to Form

Following up on yesterday's sentiment piece which detailed how investors are under-allocated to stocks and over-allocated to cash relative to their 21-yr respective mean allocations, the futures bumped early n the AM after a globally coordinated central bank rated cut was announced. Presently the futures are giving up that early morning strength.  That said we still believe that investors aren't fearful enough and that the coordinated easing will be perceived as a sign of just how bad things are - we think we need one more purge to wash out all the sellers.


 


However dont' be in a rush to find the bottom  as they tend to take longer times to form (lasting ones) as the attached image below shows the S&P 500 took 9 months in 2002 to complete its bottoming process. Next support comes in at 950 on the S&P (black line) then 932.



SP10-08-08.PNG


 



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